China  / Southeast Asia  / United States
What Biden Forgets in Skipping the ASEAN Summit
September 6, 2023

Leaders of the ten Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) states are meeting in Jakarta between now and September 7, with the 10-member bloc under fire from two major fronts—the lingering crisis in Myanmar that has divided member-state loyalties and renewed tensions in the disputed South China Sea, where outcomes not only affect regional states, but have worsened US-China relations. However, the 2023 Summit will be without the leader of the free world, as US President Joe Biden has elected to skip the regional gathering in favor of the upcoming G20 Summit hosted by India, followed by a personal visit to Vietnam, where the United States aims at enhancing bilateral ties.


China  / India
BRICS Expansion: India’s Tragic Mistake
August 31, 2023

The BRICS bloc of emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – have agreed to expand the grouping’s global reach with the addition of six new members as of January 1: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. While more than 40 countries had expressed interest in joining the bloc, six were chosen in an effort to expand the interests of the Global South. But for India, the presumptive leader of this emerging region, the decision to expand BRICS is a major foreign policy blunder, one that puts additional power into the hands of its regional rival while restricting its own. Experts have argued that BRICS has been beneficial for India, which as a multinational economic body, allows a comfortable, moderating space for both Beijing and New Delhi to talk without political distraction, even when there are security vulnerabilities ongoing for both, as evidenced by the Doklam standoff in 2017 and the current Ladakh crisis.


China  / East Asia  / Japan
Who Wants to Talk? Communication Difficulties Constrain Japan-China Relations
August 30, 2023

In what has become a common occurrence in both the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan, Russian Il-38 information-gathering aircraft were found flying too close to Japan for Tokyo’s comfort, who scrambled fighter jets last week to intercept them. This came just hours after both Russian and Chinese vessels were crossing waters close to the Japanese islands of Okinawa and Miyako. Incidents like these are common, particularly after notable events. For example, in May, when Japan hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the summit of G-7 in Hiroshima, the same Russian Il-38 maritime aircraft was spotted along the Pacific Ocean and Sea of Japan.


China  / Italy  / Japan
Growing Japan-Italy Ties Emphasize Tokyo’s Pressing Need for Assistance
August 14, 2023

In May, Italy’s Chief of Defense Adm. Giuseppe Cavo Dragone gave a speech to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. in which he warned of the inevitable rise of militaries in Asia and their newfound ability to project force beyond their normal spheres of influence. China, Dragone noted, was now capable of flying from its East Asian home to the Balkans to hand-deliver surface-to-air missiles. While not mentioning Japan by name, Dragone warned that defense sectors in many countries were struggling to adapt to rapidly changing security conditions. Last week, several Italian Air Force aircraft arrived in Japan for exercises with the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF), which are designed to improve joint tactical skills.


Europe  / Myanmar  / Thailand
The Past Holds Clues to Thailand’s Foreign Policy under Pheu Thai
August 1, 2023

Predictions of a foreign policy reset following the upset of Thailand’s long-dominant conservative establishment in the May 2023 election have proved to be premature. The junta-appointed Senate, permitted by the Kingdom’s 2017 Constitution, has stonewalled Pita Limjaroenrat, the Move Forward Party’s candidate for Prime Minister. Pita, a businessman, and leading progressive reformer, had suggested a dramatic foreign policy shift, declaring in June that they would align with previous ASEAN chairs in distancing Thailand from engagement with Myanmar’s junta.


China  / India  / South Asia  / Sri Lanka
India’s Foreign Policy Progress in Sri Lanka is a Strategic Setback for China
July 31, 2023

It was only a year ago that Sri Lanka dominated international headlines, as its worst economic crisis in more than 70 years contributed to severe domestic strife, including deadly riots, and severe shortages of fuel, food and critical medicine. The crisis was created by a confluence of domestic policy blunders under the Rajapaksa clan, on whose watch Sri Lanka’s burden of foreign debt had grown to nearly insurmountable levels, a significant proportion of it owed to Chinese creditors. Sri Lanka’s economic troubles had been known for some time, but the Rajapaksas were unwilling to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).


Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Pita Touches the “Third Rail” of Thai Politics
July 21, 2023

If you touch it, you die. That’s the supposed result for politicians who confront highly contentious issues. Likened to grasping the “third rail,” the one that provides the electricity that powers a train or subway, the result is political suicide—at least that was the metaphor attributed to U.S. House Speaker Thomas “Tip” O’Neill when discussing the topic of Social Security in the early 1980s, as any politician attempting to reform the largest social safety net for retired American workers would later cost them their political careers at the ballot box. Pita Limjaroenrat, the prime ministerial candidate of the progressive Move Forward Party, which upset Thailand’s conservative military-backed parties in the May 14 election, also touched on a sensitive national issue: lèse-majesté.


Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Prayut Has Retired, but His Undemocratic Legacy Will Live On
July 13, 2023

In a span of hours yesterday, two events shook Thailand’s political landscape. First, after more than nine years in power, Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha formally announced his retirement from politics and resigned as head of the United Thai Nation Party (UTNP), ending an era that began with a military coup against the democratically-elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra in 2014. Second, Thailand’s Election Commission (EC) has sought the Constitutional Court’s ruling on whether Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the Move Forward Party (MFP), is qualified to sit in parliament due to his past ownership of shares in the defunct broadcaster iTV. Until that time, the EC has suspended Pita from his MP duties, even though the vote for prime minister will still occur tomorrow (July 13).


China  / Myanmar  / Southeast Asia  / United Nations
Heyzer’s Exit Marks a Low Point for the UN’s Envoys to Myanmar
June 27, 2023

Noeleen Heyzer, the special envoy of the United Nations secretary-general to Myanmar, has departed her position after what appeared like no time at all. It appeared that way because, since her appointment in October 2021, little of substance has been accomplished. Heyzer came into the job with high-ranking credentials, having served as the executive director of UNIFEM, the predecessor to U.N. Women, and for seven years as the executive secretary of the U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP).


Indonesia  / Myanmar  / Southeast Asia  / United States
Time Running Out on Indonesia’s Myanmar Diplomacy
June 12, 2023

Indonesia had been among the ASEAN member-states that advocated a firm position on diplomacy with Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the plotter and leader of the February 2021 coup that overthrew the civilian government in Myanmar. It was resolute in early meetings in April of that year, where member-states gathered in Jakarta to conceive of the now-battered Five Point Consensus, and later formed a cohesive group of ASEAN member-states, which included Singapore that preferred to isolate and deny legitimacy to the military government in Naypyidaw.