China  / East Asia  / Hong Kong  / United Nations
China: Failed UN Visit Comes at Heavy Cost
June 7, 2022

For UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet, a visit to China has been in the works for years, and with it comes high stakes. Responding to reports that in the western Chinese province of Xinjiang, more than one million Uyghur Muslims had been subject to torture as well as imprisoned in so-called re-education camps, the United Nations requested direct access to Chinese facilities as early as 2018. Despite the fact that information has been slow to trickle out of authoritarian China due to strict control over national media, international researchers and human rights activists gathered convincing evidence, calling out the deplorable conditions facing the Uyghur Muslim population, from prolonged detainment, mass surveillance, forced sterilization, to the accusation of cultural genocide. A trove of data recently obtained by hackers includes 2,800 photographs, hundreds of spreadsheets, and speeches that link Chinese President Xi Jinping directly with abusive policies aimed at the Uyghur population.


China  / East Asia  / Hong Kong  / Southeast Asia
Imperial Overstretch: Has Xi Jinping’s China Gone Too Far?
June 3, 2022

If Deng Xiaoping were alive today, he would neither be pleased nor surprised. The pro-market reforms that launched China into a global power are being undone under Xi Jinping, curtailing growth for the sake of concentrating political power, spending far too much political capital on crushing dissent and punishing the last vestiges of democratic ambitions, and overextending China militarily in the Indo-Pacific. Deng’s critical reforms were based on two fundamental beliefs, first, that communism in China could be saved by creating a vibrant economy and improving people’s lives, and second, without the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in charge, China would descend into chaos. When Wei Jingsheng went on trial in 1979 on charges of being a counter-revolutionary, the first sign was visible that the gaps between economic and political reform and the need for a Fifth Modernization, democracy, would not and could not be resolved.


China  / East Asia  / Taiwan  / United States
Is Biden Bringing ‘Strategic Ambiguity’ on Taiwan to an End?
June 2, 2022

While answering questions at a press conference in Tokyo with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida last week, U.S. President Joe Biden directly linked a potential China-Taiwan conflict to Russia’s current invasion of Ukraine. Arguing that the danger of invasion was closer than ever, evidenced by repeated Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone, Biden opened himself up to the inevitable question of whether the United States would defend Taiwan, if invaded. Biden gave positive confirmation and suggested, like Ukraine, that the “idea that [Taiwan] can be taken by force” was inappropriate. Almost immediately, Biden’s advisors began to walk back his statement, noting that Biden was not suggesting a change in the longstanding U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity, the practice of being intentionally ambiguous on the status of Taiwan. Gen. Lloyd Austin, the U.S. defense secretary, offered further clarifications, noting that Biden’s comment “highlighted our commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act to help provide Taiwan the means to defend itself.”


Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Chadchart ruling a reminder of Thailand’s distrust in the Election Commission
June 2, 2022

After a landslide victory in Bangkok’s gubernatorial election, Chadchart Sittipunt should have felt at ease. He had secured a record 1.38 million votes on May 22, far outpacing the next runner-up who received just over 200,000 votes. Many called the former Transportation Minister’s victory a democratic ray of light in an otherwise gloomy authoritarian state. But of course, this is Thailand. Victories are not automatic, and resistance from anti-democratic forces and electoral challenges are to be expected. It wasn’t long before complaints were launched over Chadchart’s recyclable campaign banners, most notably from political activist Srisuwan Janya, who noted that the campaign banners, which could be turned into shopping bags or aprons, was tantamount to vote buying. Another complaint alleged that Chadchart had insulted the government by saying that its complicated steps would affect his operations as the governor of Bangkok.


Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Eight disastrous years with a dictator and a tyrant
May 23, 2022

Eight years ago this past Sunday, General Prayut Chan-ocha staged a coup against the democratically elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra. It would be Thailand’s 12th coup since the 1932 revolution. Since the coup, Thailand has undergone profound change and under Prayut most of it has been reprehensible.  His first year in power was akin to a scene from a dystopian novel. Prayut promised to “return happiness” to the Thai people, while promising to vanquish its enemies, namely supporters of the former Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra. Aided by a partially compliant public, who posed for photographs with soldiers on the streets after a declaration of martial law, the military junta banned literature it deemed controversial, banned people from gathering in small groups, and replaced civilian courts with military tribunals. Even the Hunger Games movie, a film about a grim future under totalitarian rule was banned. 


China  / Japan  / Southeast Asia  / Thailand
The hard side of Thailand’s supposed soft power success
May 20, 2022

Thailand’s soft power potential has hit recent headlines. After Thai rapper Danupha Khanatheerakul, also known as “Milli,” ate a portion of mango sticky rice while performing at California’s Coachella festival in April, the popularity of the traditional Thai dessert soared. Thailand has cultivated a useful mass of soft power–the ability to exert influence through attraction or persuasion instead of coercion–through its local traditions, culture and reputation for hospitality. Thailand has cultivated a useful mass of soft power – the ability to exert influence through attraction or persuasion instead of coercion –  through its local traditions, culture and reputation for hospitality. However, according to the 2022 Global Soft Power Index, measured by seven supporting pillars including trade, governance, international relations, culture, media, communications, education, and values, the Kingdom dropped to 35th of out 120 countries surveyed, a fall of two places from 2021.


Myanmar  / Southeast Asia  / United States
Interpreting Myanmar’s conspicuous absence from the U.S. – ASEAN Summit
May 17, 2022

The decision by ASEAN leaders and the Biden Administration to put out an empty chair to represent the ousted civilian-led government during last week’s U.S.-ASEAN Summit was conspicuous. While the Americans suggested that the topic of the Myanmar crisis⁠—which as gone unabated for more than 15 months⁠—would be a“subject of intense deliberation” throughout the course of the conference, it also stood as a symbol of American and ASEAN inability to drive home a political and diplomatic solution. Given the complexity of issues facing ASEAN leaders, given American preoccupation with a rising and aggressive China and the intricacies of regional trade, Myanmar was still an urgent topic, with the U.S. and a few ASEAN leaders instead choosing to meet with National Unity Government (NUG) Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung. However, the decision to set out an empty chair reeks of ASEAN’s inability to form consensus.


Indo-Pacific  / Philippines  / Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Engaging Thailand is the right move for Biden ahead of the ASEAN-U.S Summit
May 11, 2022

Thailand and the United States are engaging in a Strategic Dialogue for the first time in two years, a move that has raised eyebrows among commentators and policy watchers. Attended by Thailand’s Permanent Secretary for Foreign Affairs Thanee Thongphakdi and Permanent Secretary for Defence Gen. Warakiat Rattananont, lower ranking officials as is common for policy discussions such as these. The Strategic Dialogue, which comes ahead of the ASEAN-U.S. Summit that is scheduled for May 12 and 13, shows signs of a revival in bilateral relations between Bangkok and Washington. Some of the agenda items are mostly diplomatic pleasantries and expanding bilateral partnerships that are significant for both the Biden Administration and Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, such as post-COVID-19 economic recovery, as well as initiatives to combat climate change.


Japan  / Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Kishida’s Golden Week visit sets an important Japan–Thailand agenda
May 3, 2022

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to visit Thailand on his imminent tour throughout Southeast Asia, as part of Golden Week, a series of four Japanese holidays from the end of April to early May.  The trip hopes to strengthen regional cooperation in light of Russia’s weeks-long invasion of Ukraine, the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and increased stress in the Indo-Pacific region due to China’s growing assertiveness and perceived aggression. Kishida’s trip to Thailand in early May will be the latest in a string of diplomatic visits. Most recently, he met with the son of Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen in Tokyo in February and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in March, aiming to enlist their support in the condemnation of Russian action in Ukraine, although with limited success.


Australia  / China  / East Asia  / Indo-Pacific  / Japan
How Japan and Australia Can Keep the Indo-Pacific Free
April 27, 2022

Security red flags are flying in the faces of Australia and Japan. China’s attempt to sign a security agreement with the Solomon Islands, enhanced military patrols near the Senkaku Islands, and excessive displays of force towards Taiwan should be enough to spur the two middle powers into action. Thus far, both powers have been reluctant to play a larger security role in regional groupings like the Quad. That must change. 2013, China has been luring the Pacific island states through its Belt and Road Initiative projects, followed by prompts to switch recognition from Taiwan to China, and finally entering into a security pact that may potentially allow China to deploy its police, armed police, military personnel and other law enforcement and armed forces.