Philippines  / Southeast Asia  / Thailand
What the resurrection of the Marcos dynasty means for Southeast Asia
April 26, 2022

This May, voters in the Philippines will elect the son of a notorious dictator. Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., or “Bongbong”, is the top candidate to replace Rodrigo Duterte as President. Polls show the younger Marcos with a healthy lead over his opponent, the incumbent Vice President Leni Robredo. The result could see the return of a political dynasty famous for its corruption and a penchant for abuse of power. The May 9 election results could have deep implications for Thailand and broader southeast Asia. For the Philippines, like other parts of east and southeast Asia, the most problematic leaders often arrive as potential saviors. In the 1960s, frustration with the political ruling class brought Marcos to power in the Philippines.


India  / Russia  / Ukraine
Challenges for India’s G20 Presidency in 2023
April 18, 2022

After the United States and Australia called for Russia to be excluded from the upcoming G20 Summit in Bali this November, there was some concern that the political pressure and the fallout from Russian aggression in Ukraine would derail Indonesia’s G20 Presidency. With Indonesian President Joko Widodo calling for caution and suggesting the venue was a gathering for economic cooperation rather than political discussion, it is clear that the status quo for Russian President Vladimir Putin⁠—for the moment⁠—will prevail. However, as the war in Ukraine drags on and calls for international condemnation, isolation, and increased punishment directed at Moscow, it is not too early to suggest that India could face questions about its continued political, economic, and military connection to Russia.


Europe  / France  / Russia
France in Anger: What Election Results Mean for France and the Globe
April 13, 2022

“La France en colère” (France in anger). Over the past two years, this phrase has appeared on signboards, web sites, social media, and on the lips of politicians and the public at large. French incandescence stems from stagnant wages, income inequality that has been widening since 2000, insulated elites and an opaque bureaucracy that has created what could be described as the Great Payback. The first round of France’s presidential election is a confirmation that the lid of a political and economic pressure cooker has come off. While it wasn’t immigration or political identity on the minds of the French voter, the results should send shockwaves through the political establishment, that far-right candidates out-polled the incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and have cast the Socialist and Gaullist parties, fixtures in French political culture into irrelevance.


India  / South Asia  / Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis: An Opportunity for India to Reclaim Influence
April 5, 2022

Sri Lanka is in crisis. In the capital, Colombo, last week, authorities fired tear gas and water cannons at protesters who had gathered outside the home of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa demanding his resignation. The country of 22 million people is in the throes of a major economic crisis, one not seen since its independence in 1948.  The crisis has stretched the ability of policymakers to pay for essential public services as the treasuries have been drained. Coupled with a severe shortage of foreign currency, vital to the payment of tremendous amounts of Chinese-funded debt, the government had little choice but to ban critical imports, leaving many with a shortage of everyday essential items.


India  / Japan  / Ukraine
Japanese Prime Minister Kishida’s India Visit: Economics trumps Geopolitics
April 1, 2022

In his first bilateral visit, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio visited India on the beginning leg of a three-day swing through New Delhi, and later Cambodia. Meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Kishida aimed to tighten relations with India, and further promote bilateral ties, as 2022 marks the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Japan holds India in high regard, as iron ore from India contributed to Japan’s post-war recovery and after then-Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi visited India, Japan provided loans to India, constituting its first official development assistance (ODA) package.


Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Thai education beset by poor management, inequality, and high teacher debt
March 30, 2022

It was clear from the moment that Noi Don Kha Pracha Samakkee School in the Khong Chai District of  Kalasin Province announced in their advertisement that something was again wrong in Thai education. The rural school was looking to hire teachers in the fields of English and computers for the slim sum of 5,000 baht per month. Netizens balked at the rather low monthly salary (which might have been lower than Thailand’s minimum wage) and lamented the high workloads of Thailand’s school teachers.


Myanmar  / Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Protesters and media platforms must evolve to protect political speech in Thailand
March 28, 2022

Narin Kulpongsathron, a 33-year old activist, was recently convicted under Article 112 of the Thai Criminal Code on March 4 for defacing a portrait of Thailand’s King Vajiralongkorn. Otherwise known as lèse majesté, which prohibits the defamation of the Thai royal family, convictions can come with sentences of up to 15 years. His was related to a pro-reform protest in September 2020, on the anniversary of the military coup d’état that overthrew former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. 


Cambodia  / China  / Southeast Asia
Japan’s Recent Diplomacy in Cambodia Bears Fruit
March 24, 2022

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida must see an opportunity. In his visits, first to India and later to Cambodia, Kishida has played the role of relationship builder and norm enforcer, asking both Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen to heel on both demanding an end to Russian aggression in Ukraine, and asking Cambodia to support Ukrainian sovereignty as well. Tokyo’s diplomacy over the past week has put Cambodia, which holds the rotating chairmanship of ASEAN this year, center stage. And it worked.


China  / East Asia  / Taiwan  / Ukraine  / United States
Time to End Ambiguity: Ukrainian Lessons for Taiwan and the U.S.
March 9, 2022

As the war in Ukraine heads into its second week, the bodies are piling higher. Last week, the Russian Defense Ministry for the first time acknowledged Russian casualties from their February 24 invasion. The top Ukrainian newspaper in Kyiv recently reported that 9,000 Russian troops have been killed, although the Ukrainian government reports more than 11,000. Regardless of the exact numbers, the human toll cannot be understated. After 20 years in Afghanistan, just short of 2,500 American troops were killed. The Russians lost almost 15,000 over ten years. At this rate, Russia’s military operation in Ukraine looks set to well exceed those figures.


Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Abuse in Thai schools requires a long, hard look in the mirror
March 7, 2022

In the Muang Sam Sip District of Ubon Ratchathani, an 11-year old boy was recently the victim of physical harm at the hands of his teacher. In demanding that the child cut his hair, which in the teacher’s estimation violated school policy, the Grade 5 teacher struck the boy with a stick six times along his calves. Reminiscing about the past, the boy’s father said that the worst thing used to happen was that the teacher would cut a small slice of hair from a student and inform them that it had to be cut to the required length. Strikes such as those given to his son, clearly crossed a red line.