China’s dominance in Southeast Asia is obvious anywhere you look. Long-standing ties and investment in Cambodia earned Beijing the opportunity to act as Prime Minister Hun Sen’s proxy vote in ASEAN during a pivotal year. China’s upstream dams and subsequent hydroelectric power demand compromised livelihoods for Mekong River countries and created leverage over downstream economies.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread disruption in Southeast Asia, in terms of the number of deaths, the livelihoods lost, and the major interruptions to supply chains. Moreover, the recent rise in inflation, which has resulted in higher food prices, has severely eroded the purchasing power of households. This has raised questions about the region’s food security, which up until recently, was primarily the domain of the NGO community, regional organizations, the United Nations, and individual states.
US secretary of state Antony Blinken almost made it to Thailand. Blinken had planned to visit his counterpart, Thai foreign minister Don Pramudwinai, but a journalist following the secretary tested positive for Covid-19. linken’s Thailand visit was supposed to be the last leg of a tour of Southeast Asia. Instead, it ended up being a microcosm of US inattention to the Kingdom, as well as president Joe Biden’s inability to forge greater relationships with strategic partners as the US looks for ways to contain China.
The ongoing crisis in Myanmar has exacerbated concerns about ASEAN’s relevance and competence to police crises within its member states. As of May 27, 828 people have been killed so far in Myanmar since February 1 according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), and more than 4,300 people are currently being detained. The crisis has seen the first indication that it has become a regional problem, with people fleeing violence into neighboring Thailand and India.
When Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha decided to opt out of the ASEAN Summit on Myanmar in Jakarta, perhaps the writing was on the wall. By sending Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Don Pramudwinai in place of Prayut, Thailand appeared to have forfeited the chance to steer any of the potential outcomes of the gathering, which seeks to find diplomatic and political solutions to the crisis in Myanmar, which has claimed more than 730 lives since the Tatmadaw launched a coup d’état on February 1.
The United States will soon have new leadership, as Congress will meet on January 6 to formally count the votes of the Electoral College. Absent a highly unlikely and very undemocratic coup d’état – an authoritarian fantasy largely present in the mind of outgoing President Donald Trump – the joint session will solidify President-elect Joseph Biden’s victory and his inevitable inauguration on January 20.
In mid-November, 15 Asian nations signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the largest free trade agreement, creating the world’s largest trading bloc, covering nearly a third of the global economy. All 10 members of ASEAN, plus Japan, China, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea became signatories.
Cambodia’s Sam Rainsy, the self-exiled opposition leader landed in Kuala Lumpur over the weekend, vowing to return home to lead an uprising against his country’s long-serving Prime Minister and former Khmer Rouge officer Hun Sen.
When the American strategic ‘pivot’ to Asia collapsed, China took the mantle of hegemonic leadership in Southeast Asia. The question of how to respond to an assertive and confident China is a conundrum shared by small states and regional powers alike. One of the remaining bright spots of Obama’s so-called pivot, was the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was supposed to significantly boost trade in three Southeast Asian states, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore–while excluding or checking China. Donald Trump’s election in 2016 radically altered the fortunes of TPP beneficiaries.
