{"id":5630,"date":"2022-09-02T07:30:10","date_gmt":"2022-09-02T07:30:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/markscogan.com\/?p=5630"},"modified":"2022-09-02T08:01:51","modified_gmt":"2022-09-02T08:01:51","slug":"is-thailand-bending-toward-the-united-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/markscogan.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/02\/is-thailand-bending-toward-the-united-states\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Thailand \u2018bending\u2019 toward the United States? Think again"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
Prime Minister of Thailand Prayut Chan-o-cha participates in the US-ASEAN Special Summit at the US State Department in Washington, DC, on 13 May, 2022. Photo Credit: Brendan Smialowski \/ AFP.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

T<\/strong><\/mark>hailand\u2019s foreign policy is famous for \u201cbending in the wind\u201d like bamboo, moving from side to side as it positions itself between China and the United States. Shawn W. Crispin, a highly-respected Southeast Asia observer and journalist recently commented in the\u00a0Asia Times<\/em>\u00a0on Thailand\u2019s latest tilt back toward the United States, citing in part Bangkok\u2019s defiance of China in joining the U.S.-led\u00a0Indo-Pacific Economic Framework<\/a>\u00a0(IPEF) and Thai resistance to completing a train project that would connect Thailand to China via Laos.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, assumptions of Bangkok\u2019s perceived defiance of China are premature. <\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a>
As featured in the Southeast Asia Globe<\/a><\/strong>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In Thailand\u2019s recent pursuit of military modernisation, it has attempted to purchase a Yuan-class S-26T submarine from China for roughly $400 million. But the submarine deal was made only after rejecting competing offers from South Korea and Germany. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The submarine deal ran into problems when the German-made engines that the Royal Thai Navy wanted were rejected because Germany refused, citing a European Union arms embargo. The idea that Thailand was standing up to China by demanding that the original agreement be honoured is far-fetched.

After Thailand rejected a Chinese proposal to sell the Thai navy two used Yuan-class submarines instead of the brand new one, it appears that it may have caved to Chinese pressure, as Beijing has offered an alternative engine that could be to the Thai Navy\u2019s liking.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reality is that when it comes to defence, Thailand has a history of preferring Chinese equipment. While the Royal Thai Air Force has clumsily pursued American F-35 fighter jets, there\u2019s no guarantee that Thai pilots are trained to fly them. Considering Thailand\u2019s closeness with China, there are fears among some in the U.S. government that sensitive technologies may fall into Chinese hands. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the Royal Thai Army wanted to replace their ageing American made tanks in February 2016, it eventually decided on Chinese NORINCO-made VT4s after cancelling orders for Ukrainian-made main battle tanks. China has also supplied Thailand with armoured personnel carriers (APCs), and an amphibious transport dock back in 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Thai and U.S. soldiers parade during the opening ceremony of Cobra Gold 2016 in Sattahip. Thailand and the US jointly host Cobra Gold Asia\u2019s largest military exercise. Photo Credit: Nicolas Asfouri \/ AFP.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Thailand\u2019s foreign policy may bend, but it does not bend so quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Longer term trends must also be accounted for. After the 2014 coup, which overthrew the democratically-elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra, the United States under the Obama administration, sanctioned Thailand for uprooting Thai democracy. This deterioration in the U.S.-Thai relationship compelled the ruling military junta to seek closer ties with China. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s clear the United States has been concerned about its dwindling influence over Thailand. But it\u2019s a partially self-inflicted wound as a result of a lack of engagement following the 2014 coup and broader American absence from the region. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. President Biden attempted earlier this year to boost bilateral ties by sending Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin to Thailand just after the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, but it remains to be seen if those high-level diplomatic visits have had an effect. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As defence cooperation in recent years, notably the annual U.S.-Thai co-sponsored Cobra Gold military drills have dropped in participation, Thailand\u2019s armed forces have increased bilateral military exercises with the People\u2019s Liberation Army.

Thailand and China also recently kicked off<\/a> the \u201cFalcon Strike\u201d joint air exercises, even after Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait made many Southeast Asian countries nervous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A Chinese J-10 aircraft from the People\u2019s Liberation Army Air Force prepares to take off during the combined exercise \u201dFalcon Strike 2015\u201d at the Wing 1 Korat air base. Photo Credit: Nicolas Asfouri \/ AFP.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yet defence is not the only area where Thailand\u2019s preference of China can be seen. 

The World Uyghur Congress, an organisation that represents the interests of the Uyghur people (which includes part of the Chinese province of Xinjiang) called for the release<\/a> of several Uyghurs held by the Thai government in early July.

In conjunction with several Thai and international organisations, they petitioned the Foreign Affairs Committee in Thai Parliament to seek some assurance that the 56 detained Uyghurs would not be sent back to China. The plea came on the seventh anniversary of the deportation of 100 Uyghurs in 2015, which was roundly condemned by the United States<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There was tremendous pressure on Thailand on multiple fronts at that time. But Beijing increased its diplomatic pressure, while the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) urged Prayut to use caution, noting that a decision on the status of group members should be made in keeping with international law.

Prayut complied with China\u2019s wishes, despite pressure from Turkey and the United States. Thailand\u2019s appeasement of Beijing likely caused short-term damage to its internal security, as a bomb later exploded at the Erawan Shrine in central Bangkok, killing 20 people and injuring more than 120. Prayut called the bombing \u201cthe worst ever\u201d<\/a> attack on Thailand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As international organisations and civil society press Prayut on Uyghurs still being detained, there is little to suggest that Thailand\u2019s accommodation of China, as well as its tendency to defer to China in the interests of self-preservation on issues of national security, won\u2019t continue. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sometimes, Thailand\u2019s domestic political interests pull it toward China like a magnet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was the case in the deportation of Hong Kong democratic activist Joshua Wong, who had come to Thailand in 2016 to take part in a 40th anniversary forum on 6 October, 1976 Thammasat University massacre. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Colonel Pruthipong Prayoonsiri, who was the deputy commander of the Suvarnabhumi Airport Immigration Office, verified that China had asked for the cooperation of the Thai government in refusing entry to Wong.

Prayut addressed Wong\u2019s eventual deportation, saying that it was \u201cChina\u2019s issue,\u201d and that he was aware Wong had been active in resistance movements against other foreign governments. He added that if such actions were taken within Thailand, they could eventually affect Thailand\u2019s relations with other nations, heavily alluding to China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While clearly there are issues with Beijing that roil the Thai public<\/a>, such as China\u2019s sub-standard quality Covid-19 vaccine Sinovac, this was partially an issue of the government\u2019s own making. Some of Thailand\u2019s defiance of China can be explained, such as its joining of the IPEF, as Thailand had nothing to lose by joining.

The United States could have pitched their Indo-Pacific partners by creating a pathway to U.S. markets. Some state manoeuvres happen independently of China-U.S. rivalry, such as Prayut\u2019s later interest in additional Japanese investment in electric vehicles. It seems that the Siamese proverb that describes Thailand\u2019s foreign policy as \u201cbending with the wind\u201d is now less applicable. The Kingdom\u2019s authoritarian tendencies, as well as its burgeoning economic linkages with China, pull it deeper into China\u2019s orbit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China has been Thailand\u2019s largest trading partner for many years, surpassing Japan in 2014. With its economic infrastructure projects, intricately linked to China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), it will draw Thailand further in. For now and for the foreseeable future, Thailand\u2019s foreign policy will remain bent toward Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Thailand\u2019s foreign policy is famous for \u201cbending in the wind\u201d like bamboo, moving from side to side as it positions itself between China and the United States. Shawn W. Crispin, a highly-respected Southeast Asia observer and journalist recently commented in the\u00a0Asia Times\u00a0on Thailand\u2019s latest tilt back toward the United States, citing in part Bangkok\u2019s defiance of China in joining the U.S.-led\u00a0Indo-Pacific Economic Framework\u00a0(IPEF) and Thai resistance to completing a train project that would connect Thailand to China via Laos.\u00a0However, assumptions of Bangkok\u2019s perceived defiance of China are premature.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5633,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[98,17],"tags":[393,285,39,271,391,21,55],"class_list":["post-5630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-southeast-asia","category-thailand","tag-accommodation","tag-balancing","tag-china","tag-foreign-policy","tag-great-power-rivalry","tag-thailand","tag-united-states"],"yoast_head":"\nIs Thailand \u2018bending\u2019 toward the United States? 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