{"id":6332,"date":"2024-04-08T01:59:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-08T01:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/markscogan.com\/?p=6332"},"modified":"2024-04-09T02:29:21","modified_gmt":"2024-04-09T02:29:21","slug":"low-expectations-for-aseans-handling-of-myanmar-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/markscogan.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/08\/low-expectations-for-aseans-handling-of-myanmar-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Low Expectations for ASEAN\u2019s Handling of Myanmar Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
The Gate of Triumph or Anosavari Monument in Vientiane, Laos. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n

A<\/strong><\/mark>s\u00a0Indonesia\u2019s<\/a>\u00a0term as ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Chair ended, there was both reservation and alarm at the possibility of Laos serving as its successor. In late 2023, ASEAN\u00a0moved ahead with a \u201ctroika\u201d format<\/a>, with the previous chair, the current chair, and the next chair (Malaysia) serving to boost Laos\u2019 capacity to perform its duties concerning the crisis in Myanmar, now dragging\u00a0past its third year<\/a>. While the first few months of Laos\u2019 term have been unsurprisingly quiet, regional expectations for 2024 have dipped past their already low predecessors. That is highly problematic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An early January editorial in The Jakarta Post <\/em>downplayed Laos\u2019 already low diplomatic capital, suggesting it was \u201cunfair to expect major breakthroughs<\/a>,\u201d but reassured that the troika mechanism would prevent it from violating ASEAN\u2019s joint declaration<\/a> to keep Myanmar\u2019s junta government in the fold. Furthermore, veteran Thai journalist Kavi Chongkittavorn, writing as a communications advisor for the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), wrote glowingly<\/a> about Laos\u2019 preparation for its ASEAN Chairmanship, noting it has \u201cproceeded responsibly without any hyperbole\u201d and \u201cone can see a more consultative and collaborative style.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a>
As featured in The National Interest<\/a><\/strong>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

However, Kavi downplayed the role Laos could play, noting that Lao Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith had said that it would \u201ctake a miracle to solve this problem<\/a>\u201d and that former chairs Brunei and Cambodia should be given credit for laying the groundwork for peace through direct contacts with Myanmar. He also suggested that Thailand\u2019s approach to communication with Myanmar\u2019s State Administration Council (SAC) was \u201cproper and necessary<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lifting a bloc of ASEAN states that have consistently endorsed direct engagement with the junta is dangerous, but allowing Laos to slip mildly into the background while Thailand and other states attempt to reinsert an illegitimate junta into the ASEAN fold is much worse. A case in point is the outcome of the recent ASEAN Foreign Ministers meeting in northern Laos, where the Five-Point Consensus<\/a> (5PC), the long-delayed, much-maligned agreement reached back in April 2021 in Jakarta, was pushed to the side<\/a>, angering members of the National Unity Government (NUG), who have often struggled to be heard. Before advocating for a \u201cTroika Plus\u201d model, where Thailand\u2019s new Srettha Thavisin government could be more \u201cproactive\u201d and gain Thailand\u2019s \u201cglobal recognition<\/a>,\u201d it hesitated. Under the previous military-backed Prayut Chan-o-cha government, it was largely complicit<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Laos has now moved further towards the failures of the past ASEAN Chairs,\u00a0like Cambodia\u2019s run in 2022<\/a>, suggesting a \u201cMyanmar-owned<\/a>\u201d solution to the crisis, while engaging the junta bilaterally by sending diplomat\u00a0Alounkeo Kittikhoun to Naypyidaw<\/a>, and, like Cambodia\u2019s special envoy, Prak Sokhonn, who in March 2022\u00a0aimed to smooth over humanitarian cooperation<\/a>, was also\u00a0exploited by the state propaganda<\/a>\u00a0paper\u00a0Global New Light of Myanmar<\/em>\u00a0as a veneer of public legitimacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While unintentional, a case could be made that Laos\u2019 neighbors drive the agenda while Vientiane remains free to accommodate its usual partners. With public debt ($18.7 billion) as high as 125 percent of its GDP<\/a>, it remains to be seen how far removed from Beijing Vientiane can ever get. Laos is also tied to Myanmar\u2019s junta, as security cooperation has long been a priority. Furthermore, as Chair, Laos has been unwilling to be as vocal as Indonesia was, perhaps because Gen. Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s grip on the country seems tenuous at best, as mandatory conscription<\/a> has driven out those fearing forced service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If forward movement on the implementation of the 5PC isn\u2019t a possibility in the coming months, it would appear that other actors will have to claim the mantle of leadership, as seen with China\u2019s irritation at the lack of security along its border<\/a> with Myanmar and the expansion of criminality<\/a> among its own nationals. It\u2019s not difficult to see China having extraordinary influence over decision-making, as it is in Vientiane\u2019s rational self-interest to prioritize debt restructuring and bilateral trade over resolving the Myanmar crisis, which is evident in its \u201cEnhancing Connectivity and Resilience<\/a>\u201d theme. With expectations so low and the risks of repeating the failures of Cambodia high, Laos could opt to just coast through 2024 with other strategic priorities in mind, thereby avoiding potential ire from Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At best, Laos is left to rely on its neighbors, Thailand, China, and India, who have their own interests, whether economic or security-related<\/a>. And with the security situation shifting by the minute, that doesn\u2019t necessarily mean a favorable outcome.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As\u00a0Indonesia\u2019s\u00a0term as ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Chair ended, there was both reservation and alarm at the possibility of Laos serving as its successor. In late 2023, ASEAN\u00a0moved ahead with a \u201ctroika\u201d format, with the previous chair, the current chair, and the next chair (Malaysia) serving to boost Laos\u2019 capacity to perform its duties concerning the crisis in Myanmar, now dragging\u00a0past its third year. While the first few months of Laos\u2019 term have been unsurprisingly quiet, regional expectations for 2024 have dipped past their already low predecessors. That is highly problematic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6335,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[88,515,186,98],"tags":[42,513,450,39,514,512,187],"class_list":["post-6332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china","category-laos","category-myanmar","category-southeast-asia","tag-asean","tag-asean-chair","tag-capacity","tag-china","tag-five-point-consensus","tag-laos","tag-myanmar"],"yoast_head":"\nLow Expectations for ASEAN\u2019s Handling of Myanmar Crisis – Mark S. 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