{"id":6466,"date":"2025-02-12T09:01:11","date_gmt":"2025-02-12T09:01:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/markscogan.com\/?p=6466"},"modified":"2025-09-23T02:15:55","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T02:15:55","slug":"americans-will-pay-for-donald-trumps-tariff-war-on-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/markscogan.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/12\/americans-will-pay-for-donald-trumps-tariff-war-on-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Americans Will Pay For Donald Trump\u2019s Tariff War on China"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a rally to boost Ohio Republican candidates ahead of their May 3 primary election, at the county fairgrounds in Delaware, Ohio, U.S. April 23, 2022. Photo Credit: Reuters\/Gaelen Morse

<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I<\/strong><\/mark>n the first few weeks of his second term, President Donald Trump has\u00a0resumed his advocacy<\/a>\u00a0for a renegotiation of\u00a0trade deals<\/a>, namely with\u00a0Canada, Mexico<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0China<\/a>. While the tenor of Trump\u2019s discourse on trade is ideological, the justification for trade protectionism and the subsequent levying of punitive tariffs on imported goods is based on their potential benefit to American workers, manufacturers, and consumers. However, with the bluster and pace of\u00a0policy changes<\/a>\u00a0combined with a lengthy history from his first term as evidence, were tariffs on China in alignment with America\u2019s national interests? I argue that what is past is prologue.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tariffs and Protectionism: What Does History Tell Us? <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Starting with the broadest view of trade, tariffs no longer serve the same interests or aims as they once did, and the policy platforms of the two major political parties have spun almost 360 degrees\u00a0since the last era of protectionism<\/a>\u00a0in the early 20th Century. One does not need to look far to discover that in the 19th Century,\u00a0Republicans<\/a>\u00a0believed that high import tariffs were essential to a robust foreign policy, while the Democrats were firmly in the free trade camp. Some of the motivations were just as evident as today, with stark divisions between the two parties on trade policy and it being a policy narrative that is essential to the maintenance of\u00a0electoral coalitions and constituencies<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
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As featured in 19FortyFive<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The post-Cold War environment led to a drop in the need for protectionism, as access to U.S. markets and the growth of exports were synonymous with American economic interests. And while there were costs to liberalization of trade, such a foreign competition, the wider process of globalization set into motion a global free market system that has\u00a0led to a worldwide economic boom<\/a>, with most countries benefiting. And it was free markets that arguably collapsed the\u00a0Soviet system<\/a>. Under Trump, America has now come full circle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China, Trump and Winning <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Since Trump views China as America\u2019s predominant foe, are tariffs they key to \u201cwinning\u201d and in the national interest? For workers, the answer is a resounding no. The results from the Administration in the past overwhelmingly point to the manufacturing sector, where one can make a case that tariffs and protectionism have saved middle-class jobs, particularly in the steel industry<\/a>, but even after tariffs<\/a> were placed on foreign steel in 2018, the number of steel jobs declined<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The secondary source relied upon by Trump is related to the electronics sector and the so-called \u201cshock\u201d of increased Chinese competition. And again, more rigorous analysis suggests this is incorrect. A 2019 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)<\/a> study found that there was no evidence of net U.S. job losses<\/a> resulting from China \u201cshock\u201d. Instead, most of the losses were caused by existing businesses that repurposed their operations to services in research, management, and wholesale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Related sectors that straddle industries like minerals and agriculture have repeatedly warned about the consequences of Trump\u2019s tariff policies,\u00a0including John Deere<\/a>, which was\u00a0met with threats<\/a>\u00a0by Trump the candidate in 2024.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It Doesn\u2019t Put America First <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The last leg of Trump\u2019s rationale is the detriment to the American consumer, which an array of studies found negatively impacted consumers. A 2018 study found that import tariffs on China, the EU, India, Mexico and other countries found that collectively the costs were $3.2 billion per month<\/a> by December 2018 and another $1.4 billion per month in welfare efficiency losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another 2021 study by two London-based economists found that Trump tariff policy\u00a0cost American families over $460 per year<\/a>. And most recently, Trump\u2019s Executive Order issuing a 10% tariff on\u00a0China<\/a>\u00a0also eliminated the \u201cde minimis\u201d exemption on smaller goods of less than $800, which caused havoc as shipping companies had to adjust to the new rule,\u00a0charging higher import duties and processing fees<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. Postal Service temporarily\u00a0stopped accepting packages<\/a>\u00a0from China and Hong Kong to adjust for the new rules. But again, who paid ultimately paid the tariff? The American consumer. Thus, if the \u201cnational interest\u201d is defined squarely in what is in the interest of \u201cAmerica First,\u201d rhetoric and the policy are entirely out of alignment, as Americans\u2014broadly defined\u2014clearly do not reap the benefits.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the first few weeks of his second term, President Donald Trump has resumed his advocacy for a renegotiation of trade deals, namely with Canada, Mexico and China. While the tenor of Trump\u2019s discourse on trade is ideological, the justification for trade protectionism and the subsequent levying of punitive tariffs on imported goods is based on their potential ben efit to American workers, manufacturers, and consumers.However, with the bluster and pace of policy changes combined with a lengthy history from his first term as evidence, were tariffs on China in alignment with America\u2019s national interests? I argue that what is past is prologue. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6470,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":true,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[88,165],"tags":[39,544,109,543,50,545,55],"class_list":["post-6466","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china","category-united-states","tag-china","tag-donald-trump","tag-economy","tag-tariffs","tag-trade","tag-trade-war","tag-united-states"],"yoast_head":"\nAmericans Will Pay For Donald Trump\u2019s Tariff War on China – Mark S. 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