In October 2023, Russia and China made headlines due to their actions in the United Nations (UN). The UN Security Council rejected a Russia-sponsored resolution on Gaza that did not mention Hamas. Moscow failed to return to the UN Human Rights Council after being expelled in April 2022 because of its invasion of Ukraine. China voted with Russia on the Gaza resolution, but unlike its Russian counterpart, was re-elected to the UN Human Rights Council in October 2023 for another three-year term.
Joe Biden should not be renominated by the Democratic Party in 2024, particularly when there are other potential Democrats who could perform well against any Republican rival. Of course, President Biden would do well in the primary against the two declared fringe candidates. Robert Kennedy Jr. has supported conspiracy theories and been accused by many of antisemitism, while Marianne Williamson’s past abusive behavior toward her staff has caused alarm. However, Biden’s record of domestic and foreign policy leaves much to be desired. On domestic policy, Biden claims success with a record low unemployment rate, an infrastructure bill, and economic injections that were roughly 10 percent of the American economy.
Leaders of the ten Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) states are meeting in Jakarta between now and September 7, with the 10-member bloc under fire from two major fronts—the lingering crisis in Myanmar that has divided member-state loyalties and renewed tensions in the disputed South China Sea, where outcomes not only affect regional states, but have worsened US-China relations. However, the 2023 Summit will be without the leader of the free world, as US President Joe Biden has elected to skip the regional gathering in favor of the upcoming G20 Summit hosted by India, followed by a personal visit to Vietnam, where the United States aims at enhancing bilateral ties.
Indonesia had been among the ASEAN member-states that advocated a firm position on diplomacy with Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the plotter and leader of the February 2021 coup that overthrew the civilian government in Myanmar. It was resolute in early meetings in April of that year, where member-states gathered in Jakarta to conceive of the now-battered Five Point Consensus, and later formed a cohesive group of ASEAN member-states, which included Singapore that preferred to isolate and deny legitimacy to the military government in Naypyidaw.
The tenor of the annual Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD), Asia’s premier security conference, has changed dramatically for the worse. Its 20th iteration, held in Singapore over the weekend, was partly a culmination of growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific between rival hegemonic powers, the United States and China. It began early, when Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu rejected a face-to-face meeting with his American counterpart Lloyd Austin, until the U.S. “corrected its mistaken actions,” with speculation that it was because of prior incidents, including former U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and incidents involving Chinese spy balloons in February.
In a rare display of affection and respect, Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape touched the feet of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he stepped on to the island’s soil ahead of the Third Summit of the Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) on May 22. Marape literally rolled out the red carpet for Modi, making an exception to a local rule of not welcoming visitors after sunset. India’s engagement with the 14 Pacific Island countries (PICs) is critical. FIPIC members include Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Palau, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu as well as this year’s host, Papua New Guinea
At the gathering of G7 countries in Hiroshima over the weekend, the assembled leaders of the world’s richest countries managed to put together a collective, yet veiled response to Chinese “economic coercion” and aggressive posturing in the Indo-Pacific. While not forgetting the ever-present war in Ukraine, evidenced by the presence of Volodymyr Zelenskiy, regional concerns dominated the weekend. It was a clear message to Chinese President Xi Jinping that changes in the geopolitical status quo would not be tolerated, or worse that the G7 would act with the same determination in Taiwan as it has in Ukraine.
This October marks the 10th anniversary of the arrival in Okinawa of the MV-22B Osprey, a unique yet troubled tiltrotor aircraft. Based at Marine Corps Air Station Futenma on the island of Okinawa, the aircraft, which boasts vertical and short takeoff and landing capabilities, was supposed to revolutionize humanitarian assistance, disaster relief capacities, and troop transportation in the region. Normally viewed as part of the larger context of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty and the increased Chinese aggression in the East China Sea, the deployment of the Osprey also factors heavily in the broader Okinawan human rights landscape. Two issues are driving local concerns over the Osprey, which were captured by Okinawan civil society submissions to Japan’s 2017 Universal Periodic Review (UPR) at the United Nations Human Rights Council.
The 12-character Chinese aphorism quoted by Deng Xiaoping – “Hide your brightness, bide your time” – is long dead. The late Chinese leader was fond of quoting the famous military strategist Sun Tzu, who advocated keeping one’s strengths and capabilities a secret until the appropriate moment. Deng prioritized boosting national incomes and progressing Chinese economic policy first. In 2003, Zheng Bijian, a senior Chinese official, introduced a new concept in Beijing’s foreign policy: the “peaceful rise” (later modified to “peaceful development.”) Finally, Xi Jinping in 2013 expressed the intent for China to become a great power, in part by establishing its maritime dominance in the East and South China Seas. This has already had profound strategic ramifications and put China on a collision course with other regional powers.