It was easy to see the good news. Back in May, countries from the Global South were keen on drawing India closer, evidenced by Prime Minister James Marape of Papua New Guinea, who welcomed Modi at the India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) Summit by reaching down and touching his feet, an act of respect in Indian culture. That theme of India as the standard bearer for the developing South continued into the BRICS Summit in South Africa. But beyond the hype of image and the elevation of expectations, India’s year in foreign policy was less than stellar.
Thailand has yet to fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. The tourism-dependent economy shaken by severe border restrictions saw arrivals slowing to a near standstill. When borders began to open in 2021, the Kingdom saw just over 106,000 foreign tourists, a drop from 6.7 million in 2020. At its apex, Thailand drew as many as 40 million. Fast forward to 2023, the new Pheu Thai-led Srettha Thavisin has been hard at work attempting to lure the most lucrative tourist market back to Thailand – middle-class Chinese, who have stayed away in the aftermath of tourist scams that have tarnished the Kingdom’s reputation and the death of a Chinese mother of two in the Siam Paragon shopping mall shooting.
It wasn’t long after Hamas attacked an innocent Israeli civilian population, and in the process killing many foreigners and taking as many as 240 hostage, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi came out with a swift, hardened stance, condemning the Hamas “terrorist attacks” while standing “in solidarity with Israel at this difficult hour.” While India’s response is not too different from many Western countries who issued similar statements in the aftermath of the brutal attack on October 7, where thousands of Hamas fighters broke through the “Iron Wall” and opened fire on civilians and IDF soldiers, it wasn’t entirely consistent with the past.
The BRICS bloc of emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – have agreed to expand the grouping’s global reach with the addition of six new members as of January 1: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. While more than 40 countries had expressed interest in joining the bloc, six were chosen in an effort to expand the interests of the Global South. But for India, the presumptive leader of this emerging region, the decision to expand BRICS is a major foreign policy blunder, one that puts additional power into the hands of its regional rival while restricting its own. Experts have argued that BRICS has been beneficial for India, which as a multinational economic body, allows a comfortable, moderating space for both Beijing and New Delhi to talk without political distraction, even when there are security vulnerabilities ongoing for both, as evidenced by the Doklam standoff in 2017 and the current Ladakh crisis.
It was only a year ago that Sri Lanka dominated international headlines, as its worst economic crisis in more than 70 years contributed to severe domestic strife, including deadly riots, and severe shortages of fuel, food and critical medicine. The crisis was created by a confluence of domestic policy blunders under the Rajapaksa clan, on whose watch Sri Lanka’s burden of foreign debt had grown to nearly insurmountable levels, a significant proportion of it owed to Chinese creditors. Sri Lanka’s economic troubles had been known for some time, but the Rajapaksas were unwilling to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
At a recent meeting of the four members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue in Hiroshima, namely the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, leaders outlined a series of critical issue areas that continue to impact stability in the Indo-Pacific region. These included the vulnerability of undersea Internet cables, the protection of vital sea lines of communication (SLOCs), and the broader preservation of a rules-based international order. As the Group of Seven has provided the world’s richest countries the opportunity to talk tough on “economic coercion” on the part of China, so too should the Quad send an equally strong message about China’s territorial and maritime ambitions.
In a rare display of affection and respect, Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape touched the feet of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he stepped on to the island’s soil ahead of the Third Summit of the Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) on May 22. Marape literally rolled out the red carpet for Modi, making an exception to a local rule of not welcoming visitors after sunset. India’s engagement with the 14 Pacific Island countries (PICs) is critical. FIPIC members include Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Palau, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu as well as this year’s host, Papua New Guinea
At the gathering of G7 countries in Hiroshima over the weekend, the assembled leaders of the world’s richest countries managed to put together a collective, yet veiled response to Chinese “economic coercion” and aggressive posturing in the Indo-Pacific. While not forgetting the ever-present war in Ukraine, evidenced by the presence of Volodymyr Zelenskiy, regional concerns dominated the weekend. It was a clear message to Chinese President Xi Jinping that changes in the geopolitical status quo would not be tolerated, or worse that the G7 would act with the same determination in Taiwan as it has in Ukraine.
As the clock winds down on Indonesia’s 2022 G20 Presidency, the seventeenth overall, a transition is taking place as India assumes the role for 2023. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has already unveiled the theme for its presidency, “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” or “One Earth One Family One Future,” indicative of an environmentally-conscious approach. India’s approach will revolve around several key thematic areas, including sustainable growth, digital infrastructure, climate finance, food security, green energy, and combating transnational crime. Some of these thematic areas will prove consequential in New Delhi’s ability to make a mark at the world stage, but they will also pose unique challenges.