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Cambodia  / Southeast Asia  / Thailand  / United States
Biden’s new economic framework holds slow gains for Southeast Asia
Posted On June 29, 2022
U.S. President Joe Biden has pledged a “new era” of U.S.–ASEAN ties. While Southeast Asian states like Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia announced their interest in Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), the economic gains from the framework could be a long time coming. Biden launched the IPEF while on a late May visit to Tokyo, describing it as “writing the new rules for the 21st century economy.” Almost five years after the United States withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the new IPEF has 13 participant countries and aims to revitalise American economic interest in the Indo-Pacific region, providing a reasonable alternative to China.
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China  / East Asia  / Indo-Pacific  / Japan  / Taiwan  / United States
How Engaged Was China at the Shangri-La Dialogue?
June 16, 2022

It was in 2007 that the Shangri-La Dialogue came into its own, with China and the growing importance of the Indo-Pacific at the center of its discussion. While China didn’t send ministerial-level officials, Vice Minister and Lt. Gen. Zhang Qinsheng’s presence at the 2007 Dialogue suggested that Beijing viewed the forum as an opportunity to advance its public diplomacy and demonstrate China’s ability to be more transparent and inclusive about its operations in the South China Sea and beyond. Zhang’s speech, in which he declared that China’s “peaceful development is not a makeshift, but a serious choice and pledge of the Chinese government and people,” hinted at the same.


China  / East Asia  / Taiwan  / United States
Is Biden Bringing ‘Strategic Ambiguity’ on Taiwan to an End?
June 2, 2022

While answering questions at a press conference in Tokyo with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida last week, U.S. President Joe Biden directly linked a potential China-Taiwan conflict to Russia’s current invasion of Ukraine. Arguing that the danger of invasion was closer than ever, evidenced by repeated Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone, Biden opened himself up to the inevitable question of whether the United States would defend Taiwan, if invaded. Biden gave positive confirmation and suggested, like Ukraine, that the “idea that [Taiwan] can be taken by force” was inappropriate. Almost immediately, Biden’s advisors began to walk back his statement, noting that Biden was not suggesting a change in the longstanding U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity, the practice of being intentionally ambiguous on the status of Taiwan. Gen. Lloyd Austin, the U.S. defense secretary, offered further clarifications, noting that Biden’s comment “highlighted our commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act to help provide Taiwan the means to defend itself.”


Myanmar  / Southeast Asia  / United States
Interpreting Myanmar’s conspicuous absence from the U.S. – ASEAN Summit
May 17, 2022

The decision by ASEAN leaders and the Biden Administration to put out an empty chair to represent the ousted civilian-led government during last week’s U.S.-ASEAN Summit was conspicuous. While the Americans suggested that the topic of the Myanmar crisis⁠—which as gone unabated for more than 15 months⁠—would be a“subject of intense deliberation” throughout the course of the conference, it also stood as a symbol of American and ASEAN inability to drive home a political and diplomatic solution. Given the complexity of issues facing ASEAN leaders, given American preoccupation with a rising and aggressive China and the intricacies of regional trade, Myanmar was still an urgent topic, with the U.S. and a few ASEAN leaders instead choosing to meet with National Unity Government (NUG) Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung. However, the decision to set out an empty chair reeks of ASEAN’s inability to form consensus.


China  / East Asia  / Taiwan  / Ukraine  / United States
Time to End Ambiguity: Ukrainian Lessons for Taiwan and the U.S.
March 9, 2022

As the war in Ukraine heads into its second week, the bodies are piling higher. Last week, the Russian Defense Ministry for the first time acknowledged Russian casualties from their February 24 invasion. The top Ukrainian newspaper in Kyiv recently reported that 9,000 Russian troops have been killed, although the Ukrainian government reports more than 11,000. Regardless of the exact numbers, the human toll cannot be understated. After 20 years in Afghanistan, just short of 2,500 American troops were killed. The Russians lost almost 15,000 over ten years. At this rate, Russia’s military operation in Ukraine looks set to well exceed those figures.


Eurasia  / India  / Russia  / Ukraine  / United States
India’s Russia Choices: A Narrowing Path to Strategic Hedging
March 4, 2022

Russo-Indian relations have been historically stable. A carryover from the Cold War era, a warm bilateral relationship has led to the development of a Strategic Partnership that has included defense deals, such as India buying Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets, Mil Mi-17 helicopters, and more recently the S-400 missile defense system from Moscow. The nature of the security relationship has lifted Russia in the eyes of Indian observers, but in light of recent developments—including India’s closer ties with the United States and Russia’s February 24 invasion of neighboring Ukraine—India’s ability to deftly balance Moscow with the West may be tested like never before.


Southeast Asia  / United States
A Pragmatic and United Approach in Southeast Asia
February 10, 2022

China’s dominance in Southeast Asia is obvious anywhere you look. Long-standing ties and investment in Cambodia earned Beijing the opportunity to act as Prime Minister Hun Sen’s proxy vote in ASEAN during a pivotal year. China’s upstream dams and subsequent hydroelectric power demand compromised livelihoods for Mekong River countries and created leverage over downstream economies.


China  / East Asia  / Hong Kong  / Taiwan  / United States
Democracy Promotion in the Indo-Pacific: Prelude to a ‘Biden Doctrine’?
December 2, 2021

Sometimes, it’s helpful for American presidents to have a doctrine, as they help guide policy and sharpen both strategy and messaging. Former President George W. Bush sharply defined his presidency on the doctrine of “either you’re with us, or you’re against us,” opening a space for unilateral military action.


China  / Southeast Asia  / United States
Biden’s pivot to Asia must be more comprehensive than Obama’s
September 16, 2021

When U.S. President Barack Obama was first sworn in, expectations that a departure from the Bush Administration’s obsession with the Middle East were imminent. The argument was that the United States had paid too much attention to its military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, and too little was spent on Asia, where an emerging China was now developing islands by hand and attempting to influence weaker Southeast Asian states to do its bidding. 


Afghanistan  / Central Asia  / China  / Pakistan  / United States
Containing the Taliban after America’s Defeat
August 31, 2021

The ancient Chinese strategy game of weiqi, or Go, involves a competition in which the player who occupies the most board space wins. Logic would dictate that in Afghanistan, a Go strategy by the Taliban would have resulted in a decisive victory, but that would be absolutely wrong. Had the Taliban pursued a Go strategy, holding the countryside, where  some three-quarters of the Afghan population lives, it would not have succeeded as spectacularly as it did in seizing power following the U.S. withdrawal earlier this month.