Abe’s departure due to ill health will not immediately mean dramatic change. His successor will be chosen from a list of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) candidates that largely share his views on foreign policy, though perhaps not with the same hawkishness or determination. Yet his departure could be a turning point that will make or break the long-term success of his initiatives in Africa. His successor faces a formidable task in trying to roll back Beijing’s influence in Africa.
After a record stint at the helm, Shinzo Abe is resigning as prime minister because of health complications. His departure comes in the middle of an epic security dilemma with China and could signal the end of a long pursuit of constitutional changes that would normalise Japan.
Japan and Thailand have a storied history that dates back to the 16th Century, although most recall Japan’s invasion of Thailand in 1941 and the Kingdom’s subsequent declaration of war against the United States and Great Britain, which both the monarchy and the Thai Ambassador refused to deliver.
Last Friday’s Constitutional Court verdict saw the dissolution of the second largest opposition party in Thailand, the Future Forward Party. The Thai Court dissolved the party after their charismatic leader, Thanathorn Juangroonggruangkit gave the party a $9 million loan to finance their election campaign, supposedly violation of the 10 million baht ($315,000) limit.
At issue with the Future Forward Party is the continuing decline of political pluralism in Thailand, which has a troubling history with opposition political parties. Millions of young Thais voted for the Future Forward Party, partially because of its young leadership and its opposition to excessive military spending. Future Forward Party members have been rather outspoken in their criticism of the military’s influence on Thai politics.
After more than a year of discussion, the European Union decided to suspend Cambodia’s trade privileges under the “Everything But Arms” (EBA) scheme. The EU suspension is scheduled to affect more than 20 percent of Cambodia’s exports to Europe, or approximately $1.1 billion in exports every year.
Thailand’s Constitutional Court, in a 7-2 decision has stripped Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the leader of the Future Forward Party (FFP) of his MP seat because he broke election rules by owning shares in V-Luck Media Company, which the Election Commission in March noted violated election rules.
Cambodia’s Sam Rainsy, the self-exiled opposition leader landed in Kuala Lumpur over the weekend, vowing to return home to lead an uprising against his country’s long-serving Prime Minister and former Khmer Rouge officer Hun Sen.
Cambodia’s economic growth remains under threat, as the European Union (EU) begins the process of removing the country from the Everything-But-Arms (EBA) scheme, and more recently the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The EU’s response to Cambodia stems from the government’s turn away from democratization that dates back prior to the 2018 general elections.
Thailand’s Parliament recently selected its next Prime Minister, but there was never any real doubt about who would emerge the winner: 2014 coup leader and current Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. While the vote ends Thailand’s protracted election season, the 2019 election leaves much to be desired in terms of adherence to democratic norms.