foreign policy


Japan  / Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Kishida’s Golden Week visit sets an important Japan–Thailand agenda
Posted On May 3, 2022
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to visit Thailand on his imminent tour throughout Southeast Asia, as part of Golden Week, a series of four Japanese holidays from the end of April to early May.  The trip hopes to strengthen regional cooperation in light of Russia’s weeks-long invasion of Ukraine, the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and increased stress in the Indo-Pacific region due to China’s growing assertiveness and perceived aggression. Kishida’s trip to Thailand in early May will be the latest in a string of diplomatic visits. Most recently, he met with the son of Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen in Tokyo in February and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in March, aiming to enlist their support in the condemnation of Russian action in Ukraine, although with limited success.
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Australia  / China  / East Asia  / Indo-Pacific  / Japan
How Japan and Australia Can Keep the Indo-Pacific Free
April 27, 2022

Security red flags are flying in the faces of Australia and Japan. China’s attempt to sign a security agreement with the Solomon Islands, enhanced military patrols near the Senkaku Islands, and excessive displays of force towards Taiwan should be enough to spur the two middle powers into action. Thus far, both powers have been reluctant to play a larger security role in regional groupings like the Quad. That must change. 2013, China has been luring the Pacific island states through its Belt and Road Initiative projects, followed by prompts to switch recognition from Taiwan to China, and finally entering into a security pact that may potentially allow China to deploy its police, armed police, military personnel and other law enforcement and armed forces.


China  / East Asia  / Taiwan  / Ukraine  / United States
Time to End Ambiguity: Ukrainian Lessons for Taiwan and the U.S.
March 9, 2022

As the war in Ukraine heads into its second week, the bodies are piling higher. Last week, the Russian Defense Ministry for the first time acknowledged Russian casualties from their February 24 invasion. The top Ukrainian newspaper in Kyiv recently reported that 9,000 Russian troops have been killed, although the Ukrainian government reports more than 11,000. Regardless of the exact numbers, the human toll cannot be understated. After 20 years in Afghanistan, just short of 2,500 American troops were killed. The Russians lost almost 15,000 over ten years. At this rate, Russia’s military operation in Ukraine looks set to well exceed those figures.


Eurasia  / India  / Russia  / Ukraine  / United States
India’s Russia Choices: A Narrowing Path to Strategic Hedging
March 4, 2022

Russo-Indian relations have been historically stable. A carryover from the Cold War era, a warm bilateral relationship has led to the development of a Strategic Partnership that has included defense deals, such as India buying Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets, Mil Mi-17 helicopters, and more recently the S-400 missile defense system from Moscow. The nature of the security relationship has lifted Russia in the eyes of Indian observers, but in light of recent developments—including India’s closer ties with the United States and Russia’s February 24 invasion of neighboring Ukraine—India’s ability to deftly balance Moscow with the West may be tested like never before.


Southeast Asia  / United States
A Pragmatic and United Approach in Southeast Asia
February 10, 2022

China’s dominance in Southeast Asia is obvious anywhere you look. Long-standing ties and investment in Cambodia earned Beijing the opportunity to act as Prime Minister Hun Sen’s proxy vote in ASEAN during a pivotal year. China’s upstream dams and subsequent hydroelectric power demand compromised livelihoods for Mekong River countries and created leverage over downstream economies.


China  / East Asia  / Hong Kong  / Taiwan  / United States
Democracy Promotion in the Indo-Pacific: Prelude to a ‘Biden Doctrine’?
December 2, 2021

Sometimes, it’s helpful for American presidents to have a doctrine, as they help guide policy and sharpen both strategy and messaging. Former President George W. Bush sharply defined his presidency on the doctrine of “either you’re with us, or you’re against us,” opening a space for unilateral military action.


Afghanistan  / Central Asia  / India
What Does a Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan Mean for India’s Foreign Policy?
September 13, 2021

India’s foreign policy is at a crossroads in Afghanistan, where past policy decisions are producing strategic, moral, and political consequences. To a large extent, India made a mistake, as many Western powers did: it put its faith and confidence in the Ashraf Ghani government, while rivals such as China and Pakistan made overtures toward the Taliban, and are now certain to advance their interests and influence over the country.


Afghanistan  / Central Asia  / China  / Pakistan  / United States
Containing the Taliban after America’s Defeat
August 31, 2021

The ancient Chinese strategy game of weiqi, or Go, involves a competition in which the player who occupies the most board space wins. Logic would dictate that in Afghanistan, a Go strategy by the Taliban would have resulted in a decisive victory, but that would be absolutely wrong. Had the Taliban pursued a Go strategy, holding the countryside, where  some three-quarters of the Afghan population lives, it would not have succeeded as spectacularly as it did in seizing power following the U.S. withdrawal earlier this month.