China  / Japan  / Southeast Asia  / Thailand
The hard side of Thailand’s supposed soft power success
May 20, 2022

Thailand’s soft power potential has hit recent headlines. After Thai rapper Danupha Khanatheerakul, also known as “Milli,” ate a portion of mango sticky rice while performing at California’s Coachella festival in April, the popularity of the traditional Thai dessert soared. Thailand has cultivated a useful mass of soft power–the ability to exert influence through attraction or persuasion instead of coercion–through its local traditions, culture and reputation for hospitality. Thailand has cultivated a useful mass of soft power – the ability to exert influence through attraction or persuasion instead of coercion –  through its local traditions, culture and reputation for hospitality. However, according to the 2022 Global Soft Power Index, measured by seven supporting pillars including trade, governance, international relations, culture, media, communications, education, and values, the Kingdom dropped to 35th of out 120 countries surveyed, a fall of two places from 2021.


Myanmar  / Southeast Asia  / United States
Interpreting Myanmar’s conspicuous absence from the U.S. – ASEAN Summit
May 17, 2022

The decision by ASEAN leaders and the Biden Administration to put out an empty chair to represent the ousted civilian-led government during last week’s U.S.-ASEAN Summit was conspicuous. While the Americans suggested that the topic of the Myanmar crisis⁠—which as gone unabated for more than 15 months⁠—would be a“subject of intense deliberation” throughout the course of the conference, it also stood as a symbol of American and ASEAN inability to drive home a political and diplomatic solution. Given the complexity of issues facing ASEAN leaders, given American preoccupation with a rising and aggressive China and the intricacies of regional trade, Myanmar was still an urgent topic, with the U.S. and a few ASEAN leaders instead choosing to meet with National Unity Government (NUG) Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung. However, the decision to set out an empty chair reeks of ASEAN’s inability to form consensus.


Indo-Pacific  / Philippines  / Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Engaging Thailand is the right move for Biden ahead of the ASEAN-U.S Summit
May 11, 2022

Thailand and the United States are engaging in a Strategic Dialogue for the first time in two years, a move that has raised eyebrows among commentators and policy watchers. Attended by Thailand’s Permanent Secretary for Foreign Affairs Thanee Thongphakdi and Permanent Secretary for Defence Gen. Warakiat Rattananont, lower ranking officials as is common for policy discussions such as these. The Strategic Dialogue, which comes ahead of the ASEAN-U.S. Summit that is scheduled for May 12 and 13, shows signs of a revival in bilateral relations between Bangkok and Washington. Some of the agenda items are mostly diplomatic pleasantries and expanding bilateral partnerships that are significant for both the Biden Administration and Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, such as post-COVID-19 economic recovery, as well as initiatives to combat climate change.


Japan  / Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Kishida’s Golden Week visit sets an important Japan–Thailand agenda
May 3, 2022

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to visit Thailand on his imminent tour throughout Southeast Asia, as part of Golden Week, a series of four Japanese holidays from the end of April to early May.  The trip hopes to strengthen regional cooperation in light of Russia’s weeks-long invasion of Ukraine, the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and increased stress in the Indo-Pacific region due to China’s growing assertiveness and perceived aggression. Kishida’s trip to Thailand in early May will be the latest in a string of diplomatic visits. Most recently, he met with the son of Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen in Tokyo in February and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in March, aiming to enlist their support in the condemnation of Russian action in Ukraine, although with limited success.


Australia  / China  / East Asia  / Indo-Pacific  / Japan
How Japan and Australia Can Keep the Indo-Pacific Free
April 27, 2022

Security red flags are flying in the faces of Australia and Japan. China’s attempt to sign a security agreement with the Solomon Islands, enhanced military patrols near the Senkaku Islands, and excessive displays of force towards Taiwan should be enough to spur the two middle powers into action. Thus far, both powers have been reluctant to play a larger security role in regional groupings like the Quad. That must change. 2013, China has been luring the Pacific island states through its Belt and Road Initiative projects, followed by prompts to switch recognition from Taiwan to China, and finally entering into a security pact that may potentially allow China to deploy its police, armed police, military personnel and other law enforcement and armed forces.


Philippines  / Southeast Asia  / Thailand
What the resurrection of the Marcos dynasty means for Southeast Asia
April 26, 2022

This May, voters in the Philippines will elect the son of a notorious dictator. Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., or “Bongbong”, is the top candidate to replace Rodrigo Duterte as President. Polls show the younger Marcos with a healthy lead over his opponent, the incumbent Vice President Leni Robredo. The result could see the return of a political dynasty famous for its corruption and a penchant for abuse of power. The May 9 election results could have deep implications for Thailand and broader southeast Asia. For the Philippines, like other parts of east and southeast Asia, the most problematic leaders often arrive as potential saviors. In the 1960s, frustration with the political ruling class brought Marcos to power in the Philippines.


India  / Russia  / Ukraine
Challenges for India’s G20 Presidency in 2023
April 18, 2022

After the United States and Australia called for Russia to be excluded from the upcoming G20 Summit in Bali this November, there was some concern that the political pressure and the fallout from Russian aggression in Ukraine would derail Indonesia’s G20 Presidency. With Indonesian President Joko Widodo calling for caution and suggesting the venue was a gathering for economic cooperation rather than political discussion, it is clear that the status quo for Russian President Vladimir Putin⁠—for the moment⁠—will prevail. However, as the war in Ukraine drags on and calls for international condemnation, isolation, and increased punishment directed at Moscow, it is not too early to suggest that India could face questions about its continued political, economic, and military connection to Russia.


Europe  / France  / Russia
France in Anger: What Election Results Mean for France and the Globe
April 13, 2022

“La France en colère” (France in anger). Over the past two years, this phrase has appeared on signboards, web sites, social media, and on the lips of politicians and the public at large. French incandescence stems from stagnant wages, income inequality that has been widening since 2000, insulated elites and an opaque bureaucracy that has created what could be described as the Great Payback. The first round of France’s presidential election is a confirmation that the lid of a political and economic pressure cooker has come off. While it wasn’t immigration or political identity on the minds of the French voter, the results should send shockwaves through the political establishment, that far-right candidates out-polled the incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and have cast the Socialist and Gaullist parties, fixtures in French political culture into irrelevance.


India  / South Asia  / Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis: An Opportunity for India to Reclaim Influence
April 5, 2022

Sri Lanka is in crisis. In the capital, Colombo, last week, authorities fired tear gas and water cannons at protesters who had gathered outside the home of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa demanding his resignation. The country of 22 million people is in the throes of a major economic crisis, one not seen since its independence in 1948.  The crisis has stretched the ability of policymakers to pay for essential public services as the treasuries have been drained. Coupled with a severe shortage of foreign currency, vital to the payment of tremendous amounts of Chinese-funded debt, the government had little choice but to ban critical imports, leaving many with a shortage of everyday essential items.


India  / Japan  / Ukraine
Japanese Prime Minister Kishida’s India Visit: Economics trumps Geopolitics
April 1, 2022

In his first bilateral visit, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio visited India on the beginning leg of a three-day swing through New Delhi, and later Cambodia. Meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Kishida aimed to tighten relations with India, and further promote bilateral ties, as 2022 marks the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Japan holds India in high regard, as iron ore from India contributed to Japan’s post-war recovery and after then-Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi visited India, Japan provided loans to India, constituting its first official development assistance (ODA) package.