Philippines  / Southeast Asia  / Thailand
In Southeast Asia, Hamas-Israel conflict forces a balancing act
October 20, 2023

While the conflict between Hamas and Israel has polarized public opinion, its effects on foreign policy in Southeast Asia have been minimal, for now. Reflective of ASEAN’s religious and cultural diversity, countries in the region have maintained a business-as-usual approach, while carving out distinct, condemnatory positions after Hamas’ initial attack on Israeli civilians and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s planned assault on Hamas through the heart of Gaza, where 1.1 million people are being asked to evacuate.


Thailand
No Media Lessons Learned From Thailand’s Siam Paragon Tragedy
October 13, 2023

In one of the worst acts of gun violence in Thailand in recent memory, a 14-year-old gunman opened fire at Siam Paragon, a high-end shopping mall in the heart of Bangkok, killing two innocent young women, a Chinese tourist and a 31-year-old Myanmar national, Moe Myint who worked at a toy store at the mall. As is normal after national tragedies such as these, the media and the public tried to make sense of the loss, examining the mental health of the assailant, who reportedly was diagnosed with schizophrenia, the prevalence of firearms in the country due to weak national gun legislation, and the impact on Thailand’s internal security.


United States
Joe Biden Fails the Test on Economics, Climate Change, and More
September 20, 2023

Joe Biden should not be renominated by the Democratic Party in 2024, particularly when there are other potential Democrats who could perform well against any Republican rival. Of course, President Biden would do well in the primary against the two declared fringe candidates. Robert Kennedy Jr. has supported conspiracy theories and been accused by many of antisemitism, while Marianne Williamson’s past abusive behavior toward her staff has caused alarm. However, Biden’s record of domestic and foreign policy leaves much to be desired. On domestic policy, Biden claims success with a record low unemployment rate, an infrastructure bill, and economic injections that were roughly 10 percent of the American economy.


Indo-Pacific  / Indonesia  / Myanmar  / Philippines  / Southeast Asia
ASEAN takes small steps towards solidarity, even if they may not come to much
September 12, 2023

Last week’s Asean summit in Jakarta came at a time when the geopolitical environment in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific continues to worsen with the growing polarisation of power. Aside from the challenges to its centrality vis-à-vis the external environment, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations faces impediments to its centrality from within, amid its members’ diverging interests. In this context, there are two major sticking points: the ongoing South China Sea dispute and how to engage with Myanmar.


Indonesia  / Myanmar  / Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Srettha’s First Foreign Policy Mistake: Passing on the ASEAN Summit
September 11, 2023

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is in crisis and it appears that key foreign leaders, despite the twin challenges of Myanmar and the South China Sea, are passing on this week’s ASEAN Summit and related meetings in Jakarta. First, U.S President Joe Biden decided to skip the gathering of Southeast Asian states for the G-20 Summit hosted by India and a visit to Vietnam, and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be represented by Premier Li Qiang. But for Thailand, a founding member of the 10-member grouping, the absence of new Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin represents more than just absenteeism. It is the first foreign policy mistake of his days-old administration.


China  / Southeast Asia  / United States
What Biden Forgets in Skipping the ASEAN Summit
September 6, 2023

Leaders of the ten Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) states are meeting in Jakarta between now and September 7, with the 10-member bloc under fire from two major fronts—the lingering crisis in Myanmar that has divided member-state loyalties and renewed tensions in the disputed South China Sea, where outcomes not only affect regional states, but have worsened US-China relations. However, the 2023 Summit will be without the leader of the free world, as US President Joe Biden has elected to skip the regional gathering in favor of the upcoming G20 Summit hosted by India, followed by a personal visit to Vietnam, where the United States aims at enhancing bilateral ties.


China  / India
BRICS Expansion: India’s Tragic Mistake
August 31, 2023

The BRICS bloc of emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – have agreed to expand the grouping’s global reach with the addition of six new members as of January 1: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. While more than 40 countries had expressed interest in joining the bloc, six were chosen in an effort to expand the interests of the Global South. But for India, the presumptive leader of this emerging region, the decision to expand BRICS is a major foreign policy blunder, one that puts additional power into the hands of its regional rival while restricting its own. Experts have argued that BRICS has been beneficial for India, which as a multinational economic body, allows a comfortable, moderating space for both Beijing and New Delhi to talk without political distraction, even when there are security vulnerabilities ongoing for both, as evidenced by the Doklam standoff in 2017 and the current Ladakh crisis.


China  / East Asia  / Japan
Who Wants to Talk? Communication Difficulties Constrain Japan-China Relations
August 30, 2023

In what has become a common occurrence in both the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan, Russian Il-38 information-gathering aircraft were found flying too close to Japan for Tokyo’s comfort, who scrambled fighter jets last week to intercept them. This came just hours after both Russian and Chinese vessels were crossing waters close to the Japanese islands of Okinawa and Miyako. Incidents like these are common, particularly after notable events. For example, in May, when Japan hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the summit of G-7 in Hiroshima, the same Russian Il-38 maritime aircraft was spotted along the Pacific Ocean and Sea of Japan.


China  / Italy  / Japan
Growing Japan-Italy Ties Emphasize Tokyo’s Pressing Need for Assistance
August 14, 2023

In May, Italy’s Chief of Defense Adm. Giuseppe Cavo Dragone gave a speech to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. in which he warned of the inevitable rise of militaries in Asia and their newfound ability to project force beyond their normal spheres of influence. China, Dragone noted, was now capable of flying from its East Asian home to the Balkans to hand-deliver surface-to-air missiles. While not mentioning Japan by name, Dragone warned that defense sectors in many countries were struggling to adapt to rapidly changing security conditions. Last week, several Italian Air Force aircraft arrived in Japan for exercises with the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF), which are designed to improve joint tactical skills.


Europe  / Myanmar  / Thailand
The Past Holds Clues to Thailand’s Foreign Policy under Pheu Thai
August 1, 2023

Predictions of a foreign policy reset following the upset of Thailand’s long-dominant conservative establishment in the May 2023 election have proved to be premature. The junta-appointed Senate, permitted by the Kingdom’s 2017 Constitution, has stonewalled Pita Limjaroenrat, the Move Forward Party’s candidate for Prime Minister. Pita, a businessman, and leading progressive reformer, had suggested a dramatic foreign policy shift, declaring in June that they would align with previous ASEAN chairs in distancing Thailand from engagement with Myanmar’s junta.