China  / India  / South Asia  / Sri Lanka
India’s Foreign Policy Progress in Sri Lanka is a Strategic Setback for China
July 31, 2023

It was only a year ago that Sri Lanka dominated international headlines, as its worst economic crisis in more than 70 years contributed to severe domestic strife, including deadly riots, and severe shortages of fuel, food and critical medicine. The crisis was created by a confluence of domestic policy blunders under the Rajapaksa clan, on whose watch Sri Lanka’s burden of foreign debt had grown to nearly insurmountable levels, a significant proportion of it owed to Chinese creditors. Sri Lanka’s economic troubles had been known for some time, but the Rajapaksas were unwilling to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).


Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Pita Touches the “Third Rail” of Thai Politics
July 21, 2023

If you touch it, you die. That’s the supposed result for politicians who confront highly contentious issues. Likened to grasping the “third rail,” the one that provides the electricity that powers a train or subway, the result is political suicide—at least that was the metaphor attributed to U.S. House Speaker Thomas “Tip” O’Neill when discussing the topic of Social Security in the early 1980s, as any politician attempting to reform the largest social safety net for retired American workers would later cost them their political careers at the ballot box. Pita Limjaroenrat, the prime ministerial candidate of the progressive Move Forward Party, which upset Thailand’s conservative military-backed parties in the May 14 election, also touched on a sensitive national issue: lèse-majesté.


Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Prayut Has Retired, but His Undemocratic Legacy Will Live On
July 13, 2023

In a span of hours yesterday, two events shook Thailand’s political landscape. First, after more than nine years in power, Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha formally announced his retirement from politics and resigned as head of the United Thai Nation Party (UTNP), ending an era that began with a military coup against the democratically-elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra in 2014. Second, Thailand’s Election Commission (EC) has sought the Constitutional Court’s ruling on whether Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the Move Forward Party (MFP), is qualified to sit in parliament due to his past ownership of shares in the defunct broadcaster iTV. Until that time, the EC has suspended Pita from his MP duties, even though the vote for prime minister will still occur tomorrow (July 13).


China  / Myanmar  / Southeast Asia  / United Nations
Heyzer’s Exit Marks a Low Point for the UN’s Envoys to Myanmar
June 27, 2023

Noeleen Heyzer, the special envoy of the United Nations secretary-general to Myanmar, has departed her position after what appeared like no time at all. It appeared that way because, since her appointment in October 2021, little of substance has been accomplished. Heyzer came into the job with high-ranking credentials, having served as the executive director of UNIFEM, the predecessor to U.N. Women, and for seven years as the executive secretary of the U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP).


Indonesia  / Myanmar  / Southeast Asia  / United States
Time Running Out on Indonesia’s Myanmar Diplomacy
June 12, 2023

Indonesia had been among the ASEAN member-states that advocated a firm position on diplomacy with Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the plotter and leader of the February 2021 coup that overthrew the civilian government in Myanmar. It was resolute in early meetings in April of that year, where member-states gathered in Jakarta to conceive of the now-battered Five Point Consensus, and later formed a cohesive group of ASEAN member-states, which included Singapore that preferred to isolate and deny legitimacy to the military government in Naypyidaw.


Australia  / China  / Indo-Pacific  / Singapore  / United States
Defense Posturing Has Crippled Legitimate Dialogue in Singapore
June 6, 2023

The tenor of the annual Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD), Asia’s premier security conference, has changed dramatically for the worse. Its 20th iteration, held in Singapore over the weekend, was partly a culmination of growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific between rival hegemonic powers, the United States and China. It began early, when Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu rejected a face-to-face meeting with his American counterpart Lloyd Austin, until the U.S. “corrected its mistaken actions,” with speculation that it was because of prior incidents, including former U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and incidents involving Chinese spy balloons in February.


China  / East Asia  / India  / Indo-Pacific
In turbulent Indo-Pacific, Quad must hold firm – and act fast
June 2, 2023

At a recent meeting of the four members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue in Hiroshima, namely the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, leaders outlined a series of critical issue areas that continue to impact stability in the Indo-Pacific region. These included the vulnerability of undersea Internet cables, the protection of vital sea lines of communication (SLOCs), and the broader preservation of a rules-based international order. As the Group of Seven has provided the world’s richest countries the opportunity to talk tough on “economic coercion” on the part of China, so too should the Quad send an equally strong message about China’s territorial and maritime ambitions.


Southeast Asia  / Thailand
Reinventing Pheu Thai
May 29, 2023

As early as January, in many parts of Thailand, the north in particular, Pheu Thai posters featuring the fresh-faced Paetongtarn Shinawatra were as ubiquitous as rice in the fields. It was, as many had predicted, a sea of red. As soon as Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha dissolved the House of Representatives in March, the consensus was that Pheu Thai and the daughter of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra were the consensus frontrunners. Although Paetongtarn was a political neophyte, the party arguably banked on its glory days and a sense of nostalgia to win the hearts of Thai voters. It did not work as many expected. Pheu Thai had to contend with the emerging Move Forward Party, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, a charismatic Harvard and MIT-educated member of Parliament and businessman.


China  / India  / Indo-Pacific  / Papua New Guinea  / United States
India’s Modi Makes the Most of the Moment in Papua New Guinea
May 25, 2023

In a rare display of affection and respect, Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape touched the feet of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he stepped on to the island’s soil ahead of the Third Summit of the Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) on May 22. Marape literally rolled out the red carpet for Modi, making an exception to a local rule of not welcoming visitors after sunset. India’s engagement with the 14 Pacific Island countries (PICs) is critical. FIPIC members include Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Palau, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu as well as this year’s host, Papua New Guinea


China  / East Asia  / Europe  / India  / Indo-Pacific  / South Asia  / United States
G7 Provides Common Statement on China, but Challenges Remain
May 24, 2023

At the gathering of G7 countries in Hiroshima over the weekend, the assembled leaders of the world’s richest countries managed to put together a collective, yet veiled response to Chinese “economic coercion” and aggressive posturing in the Indo-Pacific. While not forgetting the ever-present war in Ukraine, evidenced by the presence of Volodymyr Zelenskiy, regional concerns dominated the weekend. It was a clear message to Chinese President Xi Jinping that changes in the geopolitical status quo would not be tolerated, or worse that the G7 would act with the same determination in Taiwan as it has in Ukraine.